Recent News

Clinton to air TV ads in Arizona

Hours after Donald Trump delivered a hard-line immigration speech in Phoenix, Hillary Clinton’s campaign is going on the air with a television ad buy in Arizona, said a senior campaign official.

The move — intended to project confidence and mount an offensive in a state that’s voted Republican in 15 of the last 16 presidential elections — is an aggressive one that could put Trump further on his heels in Arizona.

Several Hispanic Trump surrogates reconsider support

Several major Latino surrogates for Donald Trump are reconsidering their support for him following the Republican nominee’s hardline speech on immigration Wednesday night.

Jacob Monty, a member of Trump’s National Hispanic Advisory Council, has resigned, and Alfonso Aguilar, the president of the Latino Partnership for Conservative Principles, said in an interview that he is “inclined” to pull his support.

How many of the 24 field offices that Team Trump said in early August they’d open this month in Florida are now up and running?

None yet, according to Republican officials in the state.

A record number of Americans now dislike Hillary Clinton

Hillary Clinton hit her stride after the Democratic National Convention, riding to a double-digit lead over Donald Trump in some national and swing-state polls — her highest of the year.

As of today, though, Americans’ views of her just hit a record low.

Here’s a sober­ing sign of the state of our polit­ics: It’s be­com­ing very plaus­ible that Don­ald Trump, des­pite run­ning one of the worst pres­id­en­tial cam­paigns in mod­ern his­tory, could lose the pres­id­en­tial race by the same Elect­or­al Col­lege vote mar­gin as Mitt Rom­ney. A cam­paign that doesn’t be­lieve in tele­vi­sion ads, of­fers in­sults in­stead of policies, and lacks a full-fledged cam­paign staff, could end up per­form­ing nearly as well as a high-char­ac­ter can­did­ate who ran a re­spect­able los­ing cam­paign against Pres­id­ent Obama.

FiveThirtyEight generally takes an inclusive attitude towards polls. Our forecast models include polls from pollsters who use traditional methods, i.e., live interviewers. And we include surveys conducted with less tested techniques, such as interactive voice response (or “robopolls”) and online panels. We don’t treat all polls equally — our models account for the methodological quality and past accuracy of each pollster — but we’ll take all the data we can get.

Polls tighten in presidential race

Donald Trump is gaining some ground on Hillary Clinton in the polls, leaving the Democrat with a smaller lead heading into the crucial month of September.

Clinton opened her largest margin on Aug. 9, when she had a 7.6 percentage point advantage over Trump in the RealClearPolitics average of national polls. At the time, she was consistently reaching 50 percent support.