Recent News
Clinton’s Leading In Exactly The States She Needs To Win
Here at FiveThirtyEight, our favorite election-related chart is what we officially call the “winding path to 270 electoral votes” and unofficially call the snake. Designed by my colleague Aaron Bycoffe, it lines the states up from most favorable for Hillary Clinton (Hawaii, Maryland) to best for Donald Trump (Wyoming, Alabama) based on the projected margin of victory in each one. The snake is bisected by a line indicating 269 electoral votes: cross this line — meaning you get 270 electoral votes — and you win the election.
Read More >>Newest absentee, registration numbers promising for Clinton
Early numbers from Iowa and North Carolina, where voters are already casting absentee ballots, look promising for Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton.
New poll: Clinton’s lead over Trump narrows nationwide
Hillary Clinton’s nationwide lead over Donald Trump has tightened to single digits with just three days to go before the first presidential debate between the two candidates.
A new McClatchy-Marist poll released Friday puts the former secretary of state 7 percentage points ahead of the Manhattan billionaire in a head-to-head matchup among likely voters, 48 percent to 41 percent.
Read More >>Republicans see new hope for Trump in North Carolina
North Carolina Republicans are lamenting the unrest gripping their state’s largest city, but, quietly, they also see it as an opportunity for Donald Trump to gain ground in a critical swing state.
And they’re asking him to take advantage of it.
Read More >>The first debate could be a game-changer for Trump
In an election cycle full of dramatic twists and turns, the first presidential debate will be a game changer for Donald Trump. With the election in the margin of error both nationally and in battleground state polling, Trump’s performance will either create a bigger wave of support or disqualify him in the minds of voters.
Read More >>Don’t trust a single forecast. The consensus all year has been that Clinton will win.
With the presidential election less than 50 days away, we have entered the high season of election forecasting. Whether you are a citizen looking for comfort or a journalist hunting for a story, you can choose from a multitude of forecasts ranging from a near-certain Trump victory to a clear Clinton win.
But what if you are interested in accuracy?
Read More >>Poll: Clinton has big lead over Trump among Hispanic voters
Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton holds a huge lead over rival Donald Trump among Hispanic voters, according to a new Wall Street Journal/NBC poll out Thursday.
Among likely Hispanic voters, Clinton earns 65 percent of support compared to Trump’s 17 percent, the poll finds. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson earned 9 percent while Green Party candidate Jill Stein has 2.
Read More >>