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Like a lot of you, we at FiveThirtyEight are spending a lot of time refreshing our web browsers and Twitter feeds as we await new polls. Until we get more of those, figuring out how the first presidential debate affected the race involves a lot of guesswork. Still, the data that we have so far suggests that Hillary Clinton has gained ground as a result of Monday night’s debate — it’s mostly a question of how much her position has improved.

Why Clinton hasn’t put Trump away

My first impression, after watching the opening chapter of the Trump-Clinton debate trilogy Monday, was that really not much would change as a result. Trump had been his rude, sputtering, substance-free self; Clinton had proved herself again to be the diligent studier who pretends to be amused when you know she isn’t.

In a near unanimity, the media chorus immediately declared it: Hillary Clinton knocked it out of the park. It’s not a surprising assessment. And they aren’t wrong, but they also aren’t the audience that matters.

According to CNN’s David Gergen, anyway you looked at it, Clinton was the clear winner in the first of three presidential debates against Donald Trump. “By all traditional standards of debate, Mrs. Clinton crushed.”

Every scientific poll we’ve encountered so far suggests that voters thought Hillary Clinton beat Donald Trump in Monday night’s debate. In fact, some of them showed her winning by a wide margin — wide enough to make it a good bet (though not a guarantee) that she’ll gain in horse-race polls against Trump over the next week or so.

But so far, we’ve seen just two polls released that tested Clinton’s standing against Trump after the debate. They have pretty good news for Clinton, but I’d recommend some caution until we get more data.

New polling released on Thursday showed Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are locked in a tight race in South Carolina.

Trump led Clinton by 4 percentage points, 42-38, among likely voters in a Winthrop University survey. The poll had a 4.5 percentage point margin of error for the likely voter sample.

Clinton holds narrow leads in five battleground states

Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton leads Republican Donald Trump by single digits in five critical battleground states, according to post-debate polls for each battleground.

Clinton tops Trump in Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Virginia in Public Policy Polling (PPP) surveys out Thursday.

Donald Trump, all day Tuesday, maintained he won a debate that most pundits, and many polls, said he lost.

“Last night was very exciting, and nearly every single poll had us winning against Hillary Clinton, big league,” he said.