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October 10, 2016

Trump bounces back

You can make a good argument that Donald Trump won the second presidential debate with Hillary Clinton. You could also argue that no one won. But it’s probably beyond dispute that Trump’s performance will shut down Republican defections from his struggling campaign, at least for now.

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October 10, 2016

The Second Debate Probably Didn’t Help Trump, And He Needed Help

The second presidential debate on Sunday night was a strange one, with Donald Trump appearing to be on the brink of a meltdown in the first 20 to 30 minutes and then steadying himself the rest of the way. But here’s the bottom line: Based on post-debate polls, Hillary Clinton probably ended the night in a better place than she started it. And almost without question, she ended the weekend — counting the debate, the revelation on Friday of a 2005 tape in which Trump was recorded appearing to condone unwanted sexual contact against women, and the Republican reaction to the tape — in an improved position.

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October 10, 2016

Is support for third-party candidates fading away?

While Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton went back and forth on national television for the first time last month, Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson sat in an office 30-something miles away, watching closely with social media at the ready.

When the Republican and Democrat take the stage again Sunday night for the second debate, Mr. Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein will once again be noticeably absent.

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October 10, 2016

GOP insiders: Trump’s off life support

Swing-state Republicans are breathing a sigh of relief, convinced that embattled GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump successfully took the fight to Hillary Clinton in Sunday night’s acrimonious town-hall debate.

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October 7, 2016

Everything you need to know about Trump and Clinton’s second 2016 presidential debate

When is the second debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump?

The second debate will take place Sunday at Washington University in St. Louis.

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October 7, 2016

Hurricane Matthew Could Also Wreak Havoc on the Presidential Election

As Florida braces for the most powerful hurricane to hit the U.S. in 12 years, the presidential campaigns are grappling with how to address the storm—and the state’s looming voter registration deadline—without politicizing a natural disaster.

Hillary Clinton’s campaign manager Robby Mook during a call with reporters Thursday urged Florida officials to extend the state’s general election voter registration deadline beyond Oct. 11 to accommodate those affected by Hurricane Matthew.

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October 7, 2016

Clinton’s Lead Is Becoming Safer

Gary Johnson averaged just 7 percentage points in 11 polls released on Thursday, continuing a string of bad results for the Libertarian Party nominee. At the same time, the number of undecided voters appears to be falling. Those two trends are combining to remove some of the uncertainty in our forecasts — historically, the number of undecided and third-party voters has been strongly correlated with both polling volatility and polling error.

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