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Marco Rubio, trailing in the fourth quarter at home

When a campaign is in trouble, it’s tempting to view everything that happens in the context of a troubled campaign. So when, on the eve of the Republican debate, Marco Rubio returned to his home turf of Hialeah — the Cuban-American community where he first won political office as a West Miami commissioner — there was more than enough troubled-campaign context to go around.

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“Stop Trump Tuesday” in Florida and Ohio

In this screw­ball year, it’s dan­ger­ous to say any­thing defin­it­ively, but it sure looks like Tues­day’s Ohio Re­pub­lic­an primary will be the make-or-break point for the “Stop Trump” move­ment. This is as­sum­ing that Don­ald Trump beats Marco Ru­bio in Flor­ida, which seems a bit more likely than not. Then it comes down to Ohio, where John Kasich has been hold­ing a mod­est lead in the polls.

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How Last Night’s ‘Civil’ Debate Helped Trump

Individually, we get why Donald Trump’s rivals mostly backed away from challenging the GOP frontrunner in last night’s 12th — and possibly final — Republican debate. For Marco Rubio, who saw his fav/unfav drop eight points in the past month in the NBC/WSJ poll, the nicer debate allowed him to dial back from the nasty, personal insults that dominated the previous two gatherings. For Ted Cruz, the current status quo helps him get closer to his desired one-on-one matchup against Trump. And for John Kasich, he simply followed the same strategy he’s been using throughout this race.

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What Each Republican Candidate Needs to Do to Win the Nomination

With yesterday’s contests in the rearview mirror and all eyes turning to pivotal matchups next Tuesday, Republican candidates are charting out their paths to clinching the GOP nomination.

But most aren’t looking all that likely.

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GOP debate winners and losers

Thursday night’s Republican debate in Miami saw a dramatic shift in tone from recent GOP clashes, which had been marked by rancorous exchanges and name-calling.

The change surprised even front-runner Donald Trump who said at one point, “I cannot believe how civil it’s been up here.”

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Why Marco Rubio Is Florida’s Not-So-Favorite Son

Marco Rubio has been effectively running for president for the past six years. It may end up costing him a much-needed victory in his own home state—and with it, any hope of the Republican nomination.

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Report Card: Trump Unscathed in 12th Republican Debate

Never has there been a luckier front-runner. Donald Trump’s three opponents not only declined to launch fierce attacks, but largely left him alone at Thursday night’s Republican debate in Miami, Florida—for different reasons. Marco Rubio was forced to return to a positive message in the chastening wake of his failed antic and raunchy riffs against the billionaire.

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