Recent News

You’ve already heard a lot of different takes about who won and who lost the first Republican presidential debates last week. We’ve deliberately waited to name names; winning the media spin after a debate is often more important than “winning” the debate itself. But now it’s been several days, and we have some post-debate polls to look at (seven as of this writing, to be exact).¹ And there are a few clear winners and losers.

Who Will Republicans Come Around to in 2016?

This is the quadrennial Republican silly season, when candidates without a prayer of election get their moments in the limelight, sometimes topping the polls before crashing.

The polls get most of the attention, but they’re not the most important part of the early stages of a presidential campaign. The better guide to who’s really winning is known as the “invisible primary,” in which candidates compete for support from their fellow politicians, from party leaders and from donors.

GOP candidates wobble but don’t fall down

The Great 2016 Republican Sorting has begun.

Former Texas Gov. Rick Perry thudded first, his campaign acknowledging this week that it had stopped paying staff amid funding shortfalls. He’s not alone in experiencing turmoil. Sen. Rand Paul, whose campaign is struggling with deep fundraising and organizational problems, has fixated on throwing grenades at GOP frontrunner Donald Trump, hardly the strategy of a thriving campaign. Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum saw several top staffers depart for a supportive super PAC — a move that comes amid slow fundraising.

The Daily 202: Cruz trying to poach Paul voters

Ted Cruz’s operatives are quietly reaching out to Rand Paul’s early supporters and endorsers, making the case that the Texas senator is their best bet if they want a Republican nominee who is friendly to libertarians.

Rand Paul faces emerging doubts at home

Sen. Rand Paul’s presidential campaign limped into August under the weight of poor fundraising and sapped staff morale.

Forget the polls. Forget the talking heads on TV. Forget the lies and empty promises being pitched by the candidates. If you want to know who the Republican presidential nominee will be, look to Vegas.