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Laying Odds on the GOP Presidential Race

After following the Republican primary race for almost a year now, it’s hard to believe that we’re less than two months away from the start of voting. At the same time, it’s hard to believe we still have two months until the start of voting!

USA TODAY GOP Power Rankings: Carson slides, Trump soars

Ben Carson appears to be slipping.

For the first time since early October, Carson has dropped out of the top three in the weekly GOP Power Rankings.

All press is good press for Donald Trump, it seems. The brash billionaire said incoherent things about national security, and then gained after a confusing media mess about databases of Muslims. He spoke falsely about video of New Jersey Muslims celebrating after 9/11, and somehow even this has strengthened his support.

After a string of strong debate performances and some key endorsements, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio has displaced former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush as the choice of Republican Insiders to be their most likely standard bearer in 2016.

The Republican Party has traditionally favored governors (sitting or former) as presidential nominees, with vice presidents also getting significant consideration. In the past 50 years the Republican Party nominated exactly three presidential candidates who hadn’t been either a governor or vice president, all three of whom were crushed in the general election. Setting aside incumbent presidents, every Republican nominee who was either a governor or vice president won.

So we note with some interest that the first three candidates to drop ... Read More >>

Republican voters actually aren’t divided into ‘establishment’ and ‘outsider’ camps

Given this year’s crowded Republican presidential field, one of the most important questions is who else people would be willing to vote for if their preferred candidate drops out of the race. To better understand this, we asked likely Republican primary voters some unique questions in a new national poll.

Republicans overwhelmingly pick Ben Carson over Donald Trump for having the better temperament to be president, but they have far more confidence in the billionaire than the retired surgeon to take on terror, handle Russian President Vladimir Putin and fix immigration.