Recent News

OK, before I say anything, a quick disclaimer: This piece is not a prediction. In fact, I’m a religious (maybe fanatical) adherent of FiveThirtyEight’s 2016 election forecast model, which I find to be both methodologically rigorous and intellectually honest. I don’t dispute its assessment that Hillary Clinton has a 63 or 64 percent chance of winning the election.

A series of polls released today show the gap is narrowing between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, both nationally and in surveys of the key battleground states of Florida and Ohio.

A Quinnipiac poll of likely voters shows Clinton with 48 percent support nationally compared to Trump’s 43 percent. The poll marks a tightening from late August when Quinnipiac showed the margin as 51-41 in favor of Clinton.

Hillary Clinton‘s comment last week saying that half of Donald Trump’s supporters were “deplorables… racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, Islamophobic — you name it,” has become a significant risk not only to her, but to her rival as well, at least according to CBS:

Political risk for all in Trump-Clinton “deplorables” debate

Trump and his allies across the country insisted Tuesday that the Democratic presidential nominee’s comments reflect an out-of-touch elitist who looks down on working-class voters, akin to 2012 GOP nominee Mitt ... Read More >>

Republicans have gained ground on Democrats in registering voters in three battleground states and kept their razor-thin advantage in Iowa - encouraging news for Donald Trump eight weeks before Election Day.

Republicans added hundreds of thousands of voters to the rolls since 2012 in states including Florida and Arizona, and narrowed the gap in North Carolina, according to data compiled by The Associated Press.

Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton by 5 percentage points in a Bloomberg Politics poll of Ohio, a gap that underscores the Democrat’s challenges in critical Rust Belt states after one of the roughest stretches of her campaign.

The Republican nominee leads Clinton 48 percent to 43 percent among likely voters in a two-way contest and 44 percent to 39 percent when third-party candidates are included.

Worried Republicans are pouring resources into North Carolina

After years of successfully holding off Democratic gains in this rapidly changing state, Republicans are scrambling to pour new resources into North Carolina in the face of unexpectedly close contests in the presidential and Senate races.

Hillary Clinton’s national lead over Donald Trump continues to shrink amid renewed questions about her trustworthiness and her lack of transparency.

Clinton leads Trump among registered by just 4 points nationally, 48-44, according to an NBC News/Survey Monkey poll made public Tuesday.