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FiveThirtyEight generally takes an inclusive attitude towards polls. Our forecast models include polls from pollsters who use traditional methods, i.e., live interviewers. And we include surveys conducted with less tested techniques, such as interactive voice response (or “robopolls”) and online panels. We don’t treat all polls equally — our models account for the methodological quality and past accuracy of each pollster — but we’ll take all the data we can get.

A record number of Americans now dislike Hillary Clinton

Hillary Clinton hit her stride after the Democratic National Convention, riding to a double-digit lead over Donald Trump in some national and swing-state polls — her highest of the year.

As of today, though, Americans’ views of her just hit a record low.

Polls show tight races in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan

Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are tied in Ohio, while Clinton, the Democratic presidential nominee, leads her GOP rival in Michigan and Pennsylvania, according to new polls that find tight races in three crucial Rust Belt states.

Three Emerson College polls released Monday found that Clinton and Trump each have 43 percent support in Ohio, while she leads him by 5 points in Michigan, 45 percent to 40 percent, and by 3 points in Pennsylvania, 46 to 43 percent.

Hillary Clinton’s national lead over Donald Trump has narrowed slightly to 6 points, according to the latest NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll

Clinton now enjoys 48 percent support, while Trump holds steady with 42 percent. Last week, Clinton led Trump by 8 points. The latest NBC News|SurveyMonkey poll was conducted online from August 22 through August 28 among registered voters.

Last week, Politico reported that Hillary Clinton’s campaign was set to employ a “run out the clock” strategy, declining to respond to recurring controversies even at the risk of seeming nonresponsive. In the abstract, such a strategy could make sense. Clinton has a fairly clear lead in the polls. There are only 10 weeks to go until the Nov. 8 election — and less than that until early voting, which begins in late September in some states.

Could undecided voters swing the election?

They tend to be more younger than older.

They are less likely to identify with either of the two parties.

And they strongly dislike both major-party candidates.

Trust issue continues to haunt Clinton

Hillary Clinton currently leads her GOP rival in most polls, both national and those in key battleground states. But that lead masks a serious problem for the now-favored Democratic nominee, as The Washington Post reports this morning on a focus group recently held in Milwaukee:

Wisconsin focus group spotlights Clinton’s crisis of trust

[E]veryone seemed bothered, at least to some degree, by the Democratic nominee’s trustworthiness, or lack thereof. It was a major theme that came up again and again during a ... Read More >>