Recent News

Poll: GOP tossup in Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania

Republican voters remain split in the key swing states of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll released Thursday. But with Democrats, Hillary Clinton remains the overwhelming favorite.

At FiveThirtyEight, we like to celebrate outliers. LeBron James’s Cleveland Cavaliers may end up losing in the NBA Finals, but James’s performance has been outlandishly good. In the same vein, I want to congratulate Donald Trump, who reportedly will declare today that he is running for president.

When Jeb Bush announces his presidential bid on Monday afternoon, the Republican field to will stand at 11 announced candidates. But the field could grow even further in the coming months, as several others are expected to make the plunge. Here are the biggest names left who have yet to announce their plans:

Donald Trump Becomes Latest 2016 GOP Candidate

Real estate mogul and celebrity Donald Trump announced his decision today to jump into the crowded GOP field running for the 2016 nomination for president. The New York Times offered the following report:

Donald Trump Runs for President (This Time for Real, He Says)

Donald J. Trump, the garrulous real estate developer whose name has adorned apartment buildings, hotels, Trump-brand neckties and Trump-brand steaks, announced on Tuesday his entry into the 2016 presidential race, brandishing his wealth ... Read More >>

Here comes Trump; will GOP embrace an outsider?

Donald Trump’s dream of the White House is built on the belief that America will turn to a can-do outsider, particularly a successful business tycoon, to fix the mess that is Washington.

It’s likely just a dream.

This time, he may really mean it.

Business executive Donald Trump appears poised to announce his entry into the presidential race on Tuesday and will travel to Iowa and New Hampshire immediately after making his intentions known, the Des Moines Register reports.

Jeb Bush, Scott Walker tied atop 2016 GOP field

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker are sitting atop a new survey on the 2016 Republican presidential contest, with retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson close behind.