Recent News

It was the most significant week yet in the race for the Republican presidential nomination.

Tech executive Carly Fiorina’s hopes rose—along with her poll numbers, fundraising, and crowd counts—after a masterful performance at the GOP’s first debate, albeit a breakout showing for the also-ran candidates who trailed in public polling.

Seven GOP candidates who could drop from ’16 race before Iowa

Seventeen major Republican candidates are running hard for the White House. But not all will make it to Iowa.

Of the crowded 2016 GOP primary field, who will be the first to head for the exits?

You’ve already heard a lot of different takes about who won and who lost the first Republican presidential debates last week. We’ve deliberately waited to name names; winning the media spin after a debate is often more important than “winning” the debate itself. But now it’s been several days, and we have some post-debate polls to look at (seven as of this writing, to be exact).¹ And there are a few clear winners and losers.

The polls get most of the attention, but they’re not the most important part of the early stages of a presidential campaign. The better guide to who’s really winning is known as the “invisible primary,” in which candidates compete for support from their fellow politicians, from party leaders and from donors.

GOP candidates wobble but don’t fall down

The Great 2016 Republican Sorting has begun.

Former Texas Gov. Rick Perry thudded first, his campaign acknowledging this week that it had stopped paying staff amid funding shortfalls. He’s not alone in experiencing turmoil. Sen. Rand Paul, whose campaign is struggling with deep fundraising and organizational problems, has fixated on throwing grenades at GOP frontrunner Donald Trump, hardly the strategy of a thriving campaign. Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum saw several top staffers depart for a supportive super PAC — a move that comes amid slow fundraising.

Forget the polls. Forget the talking heads on TV. Forget the lies and empty promises being pitched by the candidates. If you want to know who the Republican presidential nominee will be, look to Vegas.