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You’ve already heard a lot of different takes about who won and who lost the first Republican presidential debates last week. We’ve deliberately waited to name names; winning the media spin after a debate is often more important than “winning” the debate itself. But now it’s been several days, and we have some post-debate polls to look at (seven as of this writing, to be exact).¹ And there are a few clear winners and losers.

The polls get most of the attention, but they’re not the most important part of the early stages of a presidential campaign. The better guide to who’s really winning is known as the “invisible primary,” in which candidates compete for support from their fellow politicians, from party leaders and from donors.

Forget the polls. Forget the talking heads on TV. Forget the lies and empty promises being pitched by the candidates. If you want to know who the Republican presidential nominee will be, look to Vegas.

Winners and losers of Republican debate

1) Ohio Gov. John Kasich: He set the Internet buzzing with his common-man, common-sense pitches, weaving in family stories while introducing his economic record in Ohio to a national audience.

Different Debate Skills, Styles for GOP Candidates

In recent days a number of media outlets have offered previews of tonight’s debate between the top 10 Republican candidates, and at least one has also looked at the earlier event featuring seven candidates who didn’t make it onto the main stage. Here’s a piece in Politico (with an unfortunate headline) on the earlier event:

How to Win the Losers’ Debate

How can you not feel a little bit sorry for Rick Perry? Arguably the most successful governor—certainly the longest serving—of a ... Read More >>

GOP candidates embrace ‘happy hour’ debate

The Republican presidential candidates left out of Thursday’s prime-time debate are trying to make the best of it, saying they are looking forward to the “happy hour” session earlier in the day.

As Fox News determines exactly who will make the cut for the first Republican presidential debate on Thursday, the data team at Twitter has compiled a similar list.