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What if a mainstream Republican wins neither Iowa nor New Hampshire? I’m not talking about a Donald Trump sweep. I’m talking about two factional candidates within the party trading victories: A social conservative (Ben Carson, say) wins Iowa, and a moderate (Chris Christie) wins New Hampshire.

Businesswoman Carly Fiorina surprised many with her emergence as a serious contender for the Republican nomination. Following strong debate performances that propelled her to third place in many national polls (see the RealClearPolitics.com averages here), however, Fiorina has fallen back, although she remains above the 1 or 2 percent she was registering before the first debate. What explains the slide? Bloomberg Politics has an article that offers several credible explanations:

Why Carly Fiorina Has Stalled

On the night of the first Republican ... Read More >>

Everything you need to know about Tuesday’s Republican debates

When is the next Republican presidential debate?

The fourth Republican presidential debate will be Tuesday, November 10th, live from the Milwaukee Theatre in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

Several Republican candidates are betting heavily on a good performance in the Iowa caucuses to either validate their top-tier standing or to propel themselves from further back in the race into contention for the GOP nomination. Two articles this morning demonstrate why it will be exceedingly difficult to predict over the next three months how any particular candidate will actually fare.

The Washington Examiner explains this morning that a majority of Iowans who say they favor one candidate or another are ... Read More >>

Iowa GOP expects record turnout

Top Republican strategists are almost universally predicting a record-setting turnout at the 2016 Iowa caucuses, but there’s widespread disagreement between them over just how big turnout will be – and whether it will be high enough to lift political outsiders like Donald Trump or Ben Carson to victory.

A new WBUR poll in New Hampshire shows establishment outsiders Donald Trump and Ben Carson are still leading in the Republican primary race there, but some of the other candidates are making new headway.

Poll: Trump and Carson lead nationally, Bush fades

Donald Trump and Ben Carson have healthy leads over the rest of the Republican presidential field, while Marco Rubio is on the rise and Jeb Bush is fading, according to a new national survey.

A Quinnipiac University poll released on Wednesday found Trump taking 24 percent support, followed by Carson at 23 percent.