2016 Campaign Watch

Bloomberg Politics has a fascinating piece this morning breaking down polling numbers, and seems to suggest that former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton enjoys a small overall advantage over businessman Donald Trump.

Democrats Don’t Have to Come Home for Clinton to Win

Close polls in battleground states yield results in line with what we would expect when the national margin is around 4 percentage points. For example, according to the Pollster.com compilation of polling averages, Clinton is ahead in Florida, Ohio, and New ...

It’s too early to completely close the door on Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders‘ campaign for the Democratic nomination, but there’s little doubt that his chances at this point are fairly slender. The Washington Post has an article explaining how Sanders missed his opportunity to win the nomination:

How Bernie Sanders missed his chance to beat Hillary Clinton

For all that Sanders has achieved — turning a protest movement into a viable run, gaining mainstream acceptance for his democratic socialist views, pioneering a ...

One of the assumptions of Donald Trump‘s campaign (and many other Republican candidates who have since dropped out or suspended their campaigns) appears to be that he can generate a surge of support from white working class voters (defined roughly as whites without a college education). Over at FiveThirtyEight.com, analyst David Wasserman takes a look at the numbers and suggests that even if larger numbers of these voters do turn out, they might not be in the right states to ...
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