John Kasich’s Possible Path to the Nomination
One of the most important questions for every candidate running for the nomination in 2016, particularly on the crowded Republican side, is what is their path to the nomination? What coalitions do they need to build and what segments of the party do they need to appeal to?
Henry Olsen, writing at National Review Online, has some interesting thoughts on what Ohio Governor John Kasich's path to the GOP nomination might be:
Ohio Governor John Kasich does not immediately leap to mind when most people think of the Republican likeliest to remain standing next spring. That’s a pity, because he is slowly positioning himself to become the person most likely to surprise and break out of the crowded pack.One must understand the nature and distribution of the GOP primary electorate to appreciate Kasich’s chances. For all the focus on the most conservative elements, the party actually has four discernible factions in presidential nominating contests. The most vocal elements, the “very conservative” voters, divided into two of those factions. One is more interested in religion and social issues... The other is more interested in fiscal issues...
The single largest faction is the “somewhat conservative” group, a.k.a. the establishment...
Olsen's basic theory is that Kasich can appeal to the "somewhat conservative" establishment, but that it's among the fourth element of the GOP where he would need to draw significant support if he is to win the nomination:
Even today self-described moderates and liberals comprise about 25-30 percent of the national GOP electorate. More important, they are the single largest faction in New Hampshire, the other New England states, and the Mid Atlantic states of New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Delaware. They are also sizeable in California, Florida, and the Midwest states bordering the Great Lakes. Any candidate who sweeps those states, using New Hampshire as his launching pad, automatically is a serious contender...
...Kasich’s recent hiring of Fred Davis and John Weaver suggests he is looking at being the moderate’s choice. These men worked for John McCain’s winning 2008 campaign, which the Arizona Senator prevailed by winning large margins among moderates and running even with Romney among establishment conservatives in the early races... This, combined with Kasich’s very vocal support of Medicaid expansion and other increased government support for poor people, points to a race that will run against the party’s rightward tide.
Republican moderates like candidates with strong personalities, people who vocally stand up for what they believe and run counter to the cut-government mantra favored on the right. They like balanced budgets over tax cuts (although they don’t mind those); they care more about keeping programs working than about cutting or eliminating them; they care a lot more about using government to empower the average person than they do about shrinking it to help the exceptional one do better. Kasich’s Ohio record passes each of these litmus tests. He’s expanded government support for the poor while keeping budgets balanced and cutting taxes for everyone, and he’s not shy about telling people that he’s doing something morally right...
It's an intriguing analysis, and simply having a plausible path to the nomination puts Kasich suggests he may be in better position for a nomination run than his current low standing in the polls would indicate. Olsen's piece is definitely worth the read: Why Kasich Matters (and Could Win)