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October 25, 2016

Clinton leads by 5 heading in to final two weeks

Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by 5 points as the presidential campaign heads into its final two weeks, with the Democratic nominee’s support just shy of the 50% mark, according to a new CNN/ORC poll.

Among likely voters, Clinton tops Trump 49% to 44%, with just 3% backing Libertarian Gary Johnson and 2% behind Green Party nominee Jill Stein.
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October 25, 2016

Hillary Clinton Closes Gap With Male Voters

Hillary Clinton appears to have closed what was once a large gap in support among male voters with rival Donald Trump, according to the latest ABC News poll.

Male respondents reported support for the former secretary of state at 44 percent to Trump’s 41 percent — a major swing for the group, which had backed him throughout the campaign.

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October 25, 2016

N.C. poll shows Clinton, Trump in virtual tie

The races for president and governor in North Carolina are virtually tied with just 15 days to go until Election Day, according to a Monmouth University poll released Monday.

In the presidential race, Hillary Clinton has a 1-point advantage over Donald Trump, well within the poll’s 4.9-point margin of error.

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October 25, 2016

Florida spirals away from Trump

From polling to early voting trends to TV ad spending to ground game, Donald Trump’s Florida fortunes are beginning to look so bleak that some Republicans are steeling themselves for what could be the equivalent of a “landslide” loss in the nation’s biggest battleground state.

Trump has trailed Hillary Clinton in 10 of the 11 public polls conducted in October — according to POLITICO’s Battleground States polling average, Clinton has a 3.4 point lead. Even private surveys conducted by Republican-leaning groups show Trump’s in trouble in Florida, where a loss would end his White House hopes.

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October 25, 2016

Pence to make late campaign visit to Utah

With less than two weeks until the election, Mike Pence will be campaigning Wednesday in Utah, a state that last voted for a Democrat for president in 1964.

The Salt Lake City rally was announced Monday evening. The move, so late in the campaign, underscores the danger of a landslide now facing Donald Trump. Recent Utah polls show Trump in a dead heat in the state not just with Hillary Clinton but with independent conservative candidate Evan McMullin.

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October 25, 2016

Why Our Model Is More Bullish Than Others On Trump

As I wrote last week, Hillary Clinton is probably going to become the next president. But there’s an awful lot of room to debate what “probably” means.

FiveThirtyEight’s polls-only model puts Clinton’s chances at 85 percent, while our polls-plus model has her at 83 percent. Those odds have been pretty steady over the past week or two, although if you squint you can see the race tightening just the slightest bit, with Clinton’s popular vote lead at 6.2 percentage points as compared to 7.1 points a week earlier. Still, she wouldn’t seem to have a lot to complain about.

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October 24, 2016

Clinton casts Trump aside

For the two days leading up to the final debate showdown in Las Vegas, Donald Trump was driving a message that was unnerving some on Hillary Clinton’s campaign team.

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