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It can be dangerous to predict how the polls will move in response to debates. On the one hand, journalists and political pundits don’t have so much in common with the Republican voters who are watching the debates at home. On the other hand, the post-debate narratives and “spin” sometimes matter more than what happened on the debate stage itself.

Scott Walker knew he needed a breakthrough performance at the second debate. He didn’t get it.

Instead, Walker found himself working the debate’s spin room long after most candidates had departed and refusing to rule out a question about whether he is now considering senior-level staff changes.

Carly Fiorina nailed it in the second Republican debate.

That’s the assessment of GOP insiders in a special edition of the POLITICO Caucus, our weekly survey of the top operatives, activists and strategists in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Carly Fiorina — the lone woman among 10 male GOP candidates onstage — was very nearly excluded from the second debate of 2016 at the Reagan Library. Donald Trump probably wishes she had been.

Eleven Republican candidates will face off tonight in the main debate on CNN, and four more who didn’t qualify for the prime-time event will be featured in the early “undercard” debate. There’s no shortage of advice for the candidates, suggestions on what to look for, or assessments of what they need to do to win.

Politico suggests that the candidate with the biggest stake in tonight’s debate is Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker:

Scott Walker’s last best chance

Scott Walker needs to reassure his ... Read More >>

The early debates of a presidential primary campaign, though they take place months before the first nominating contests, are a powerful force in shaping the campaign, elevating some candidates while helping drive others from the race.

At this (still-early) stage, no Re­pub­lic­an pres­id­en­tial can­did­ate con­trols the vari­ous factors that ul­ti­mately lead to the nom­in­a­tion—not only the polls, but the com­bin­a­tion of fun­drais­ing, en­dorse­ments, me­dia at­ten­tion, and more that com­prise the full cam­paign.