In June, POLITICO identified 11 key battleground states — totaling 146 electoral votes — that would effectively decide the presidential election in November. A new examination of polling data and strategic campaign ad buys indicates that six of those 11 are now comfortably in Hillary Clinton’s column.
Clinton leads Donald Trump by 5 points or greater in POLITICO’s Battleground States polling average in Colorado, Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.
Read More >>FiveThirtyEight’s highest traffic often comes on the day just after major events, like debates or key presidential primaries. Everyone wants to know how those events are going to move the polls. We’re sometimes happy to speculate about that, when we think the answer is obvious enough. But the problem is that there usually isn’t any data that soon, since the polls will take a few days to register any effects.
Read More >>Republicans will now have four years to think about what they did to themselves this year, plenty of time to contemplate the consequences of handing over their party’s car keys to the tea-party movement and watching as the quintessential tea partier, Donald Trump, drove the car over a cliff. If Republicans are really, really lucky, their current 54-46 Senate majority will only be cut back to 51-49. Losing the Senate is at least an even bet, and some analysts think the GOP’s chances are much worse than that. If the Republicans are really fortunate, they can keep their House losses down to 15 seats or so, half of their current margin.
Read More >>Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are deadlocked in Georgia with less than three weeks until Election Day, according to a new Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll.
The poll released Friday shows Trump leading Clinton 44-42 among likely Georgia voters, which is within the poll’s margin of error. Libertarian Gary Johnson is at 9 percent in the poll, and another 4 percent had not yet made up their minds.
Read More >>When the final presidential debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump started, it seemed as if it might be the best of the three and certainly Trump’s best. By the end, it was the story of Trump in Campaign 2016 in microcosm, a series of angry exchanges, interruptions, insults that served to undercut the good he might have accomplished earlier.
Read More >>Things are not going well for Donald Trump’s campaign, as FiveThirtyEight’s forecast shows. In the space of a single day (Tuesday), we published articles saying multiple top pollsters expect him to lose the election, that Hillary Clinton might try to play for a landslide, and that Trump might even lose Texas.
Read More >>Hillary Clinton won the final presidential debate, topping Donald Trump by a 13-point margin according to a CNN/ORC poll of debate watchers, giving Clinton a clean sweep across all three of this year’s presidential debates.