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October 24, 2016

Mormon Support Could Push McMullin Over the Top in Utah

In an election year when voters in record numbers say they’re fed up with major-party nominees Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, Utah alone appears poised to walk the walk and deliver a win for independent Evan McMullin.

In no small part, support for McMullin in Utah and and a handful of other western states stems from his Mormon faith, but many members of the Church of Latter Day Saints also say he’s the only candidate on the ballot who shares their political vision.

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October 24, 2016

Is Texas slipping from Trump’s grasp?

Texas, usually safe Republican bastion, is in play this election according to poll results released Sunday by CBS News/YouGov.

Hillary Clinton trails Donald Trump by 3 percentage points in the Lone Star State where 38 electoral votes are at stake, well within the poll’s 4.4 percentage point margin of error.

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October 24, 2016

Trump launches campaign blitz in must-win Florida

Republican Donald Trump, fighting through polls that suggest his presidential bid is slipping away, launched a campaign blitz Sunday in must-win Florida, where he will spend three days trying to avoid a loss in his second-home state.

Trump flew into Collier County Fairgrounds, in Republican-safe southwest Florida, on his helicopter to an eager crowd of more than 3,000 people Sunday.

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October 24, 2016

Poll: Clinton, Trump tied nationally

Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are in a dead heat just two weeks before the presidential election, a poll released Monday shows.

The Investor’s Business Daily/TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence Tracking Poll — once called the the most accurate poll of the 2012 election by pollster Nate Silver — gives both Clinton and Trump 41 percent support apiece in a four-way race.

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October 24, 2016

Clinton casts Trump aside

For the two days leading up to the final debate showdown in Las Vegas, Donald Trump was driving a message that was unnerving some on Hillary Clinton’s campaign team.

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October 21, 2016

Election Update: ‘Likely Voters’ Aren’t Helping Trump Much

FiveThirtyEight’s highest traffic often comes on the day just after major events, like debates or key presidential primaries. Everyone wants to know how those events are going to move the polls. We’re sometimes happy to speculate about that, when we think the answer is obvious enough. But the problem is that there usually isn’t any data that soon, since the polls will take a few days to register any effects.

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October 21, 2016

Donald Trump Leaves a Car Wreck Behind

Re­pub­lic­ans will now have four years to think about what they did to them­selves this year, plenty of time to con­tem­plate the con­sequences of hand­ing over their party’s car keys to the tea-party move­ment and watch­ing as the quint­es­sen­tial tea parti­er, Don­ald Trump, drove the car over a cliff. If Re­pub­lic­ans are really, really lucky, their cur­rent 54-46 Sen­ate ma­jor­ity will only be cut back to 51-49. Los­ing the Sen­ate is at least an even bet, and some ana­lysts think the GOP’s chances are much worse than that. If the Re­pub­lic­ans are really for­tu­nate, they can keep their House losses down to 15 seats or so, half of their cur­rent mar­gin.

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