Recent News

You’ve already heard a lot of different takes about who won and who lost the first Republican presidential debates last week. We’ve deliberately waited to name names; winning the media spin after a debate is often more important than “winning” the debate itself. But now it’s been several days, and we have some post-debate polls to look at (seven as of this writing, to be exact).¹ And there are a few clear winners and losers.

Who Will Republicans Come Around to in 2016?

This is the quadrennial Republican silly season, when candidates without a prayer of election get their moments in the limelight, sometimes topping the polls before crashing.

John Kasich is surging in New Hampshire while Donald Trump is taking Scott Walker’s place as the leader in Iowa.

The polls get most of the attention, but they’re not the most important part of the early stages of a presidential campaign. The better guide to who’s really winning is known as the “invisible primary,” in which candidates compete for support from their fellow politicians, from party leaders and from donors.

In the first poll to show troubles from his debate performance, Donald Trump has tumbled from 26 percent to 17 percent, with insurgent Republican business leader Carly Fiorina skyrocketing into third place.

A new survey of “usual Republican primary voters” in Iowa finds Donald Trump still holds a commanding lead on the Republican field of presidential candidates, but Carly Fiorina has shot up in the polls. Public Policy Polling released a post-debate Iowa survey on Monday, which showed Fiorina polling among the top five Republican presidential candidates.

Forget the polls. Forget the talking heads on TV. Forget the lies and empty promises being pitched by the candidates. If you want to know who the Republican presidential nominee will be, look to Vegas.