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FiveThirtyEight’s highest traffic often comes on the day just after major events, like debates or key presidential primaries. Everyone wants to know how those events are going to move the polls. We’re sometimes happy to speculate about that, when we think the answer is obvious enough. But the problem is that there usually isn’t any data that soon, since the polls will take a few days to register any effects.

A focus group led by veteran Republican pollster Frank Luntz gave Donald Trump a slightly higher rating on Wednesday night when asked who won the third and final presidential debate.

Luntz hosted a group of 26 undecided Nevada voters at the debate in Las Vegas, where Trump and Hillary Clinton faced off for the last time before voters cast their ballots on Nov. 8. At the end of the 90-minute spectacle, 14 voters said Trump came out on top while 12 voters thought Clinton scored a victory.

Republicans despondent that Trump threw away final debate

Donald Trump’s rocky performance on the final debate stage did little to allay his party’s concerns that the GOP is headed for an electoral catastrophe up and down the ticket.

In interviews with over a dozen senior Republican strategists, not one said Trump did anything to change the trajectory of a contest that is growing further out of reach.

Debate Takeaways: Donald Trump Had a Lot to Do, and He Didn’t Do It

Last chance, no backsies. The third and final presidential debate, held in Las Vegas on Wednesday night, was the last real chance for either Hillary Clinton or Donald J. Trump to shift the momentum of the 2016 campaign. Wherever the race is now, it is highly likely to stay that way for the next 19 days. So what happened? Check out our takeaways.

Let’s dis­pel with the no­tion that Don­ald Trump is cap­able of even look­ing pres­id­en­tial. The third and fi­nal pres­id­en­tial de­bate demon­strated bey­ond any doubt that the GOP nom­in­ee has a thin-skinned, un­dis­cip­lined tem­pera­ment that has pre­ven­ted him from win­ning sup­port from oth­er­wise win­nable voters.

Things are not going well for Donald Trump’s campaign, as FiveThirtyEight’s forecast shows. In the space of a single day (Tuesday), we published articles saying multiple top pollsters expect him to lose the election, that Hillary Clinton might try to play for a landslide, and that Trump might even lose Texas.