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Donald Trump has 14-point lead in New Hampshire: poll

Billionaire businessman and GOP presidential hopeful Donald Trump has a 14-point lead over his nearest Republican rival, Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, in a new poll on the early state of New Hampshire.

Mr. Trump was at 29 percent in the survey from the Democratic-leaning firm Public Policy Polling, with Mr. Rubio at 15 percent.

The latest poll out of New Hampshire shows Donald Trump maintaining a big lead, sitting at 29 percent a full 14 to 19 percent over Rubio, Cruz, Bush, Kasich, and Christie.

But those are just the headline numbers of the poll. If you really want to understand the significance of a poll, you can’t merely consume the headline numbers. You have to read a poll, and parse it.

Every­one already knows the struggle for con­trol of the White House will be the biggest do­mest­ic story of 2016. The cam­paign has already gen­er­ated re­cord tele­vi­sion rat­ings and vol­can­ic erup­tions of vit­ri­ol. By Novem­ber, it is likely to be­come the most ex­pens­ive polit­ic­al race ever. Already, it is un­like any cam­paign Amer­ic­ans have seen be­fore.

Jeb Bush and his allies have now spent $49 million in advertisements, including $23 million in New Hampshire and another $10 million in Iowa, according to data from NBC News partner SMG Delta.

That overall total amount from Team Bush - almost all of it coming from Bush’ Right to Rise Super PAC - represents more than a third of the $139 million spent on ads in the 2016 race. (At this point in the 2012 race, $35 million had been spent on ads.)

Less than four weeks before Iowans kick off the 2016 presidential contest with their Feb. 1 caucuses, the early road to the White House appears to be shaping up as a slippery and uncharted one for the Republican Party.

After three years as general counsel for one of the nation’s top pro-life groups, two-time Republican gubernatorial nominee Ovide Lamontagne is back in New Hampshire full-time with a new position and a favorite candidate for president.

Lamontagne has joined the Bernstein Shur law firm’s Manchester office, and he has signed on as the New Hampshire general chairman for the presidential campaign of former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina.

Trump leads ’16 GOP rankings one month from Iowa

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie is the biggest upward mover in The Hill’s new rankings of the Republican presidential contenders, while Ben Carson has plunged.

Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas has also strengthened his standing in the two months since our last rankings while former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush has seen none of the momentum he so badly needs.