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Recent News

GOP’s early vote worries mount

Early voting returns continue to paint a bleak picture for Donald Trump.

In Nevada, where early in-person voting began on Saturday, Democratic voters cast 23,000 more ballots than Republicans as of Tuesday afternoon, good for a 15-percentage-point edge in the nearly 150,000 ballots cast. (Mail in and absentee ballots narrow the gap slightly).

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Trump confronts Rust Belt rejection

Donald Trump once looked capable of turning the Rust Belt red.

Now, two weeks before Election Day, his best hope is to turn it a lighter shade of blue. His prospects have dwindled down to just one industrial swing state — Ohio — and even that is no longer the comfortable bet for Trump it appeared to be as recently as a month ago.

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Polls May Be Underestimating Evan McMullin’s Chances In Utah

Earlier this month, I wrote a story outlining the extremely narrow but not impossible path that Evan McMullin could take to the White House, and since then, McMullin has become a genuinely hot topic. Nate Silver followed up with a post about how our forecast model is handling Utah. And we’ve talked about how McMullin’s chances of being the first third-party or independent candidate to win a state since 1968 may turn out to be one of the last cliffhanger results in this race.

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New Puerto Rican voters could decide crucial Florida battleground

“Hillary, number one!” says Andy Santiago, who moved to Florida from Puerto Rico nine months ago in search of a job. He gives a thumbs-up with his left hand, stuck in a latex food-preparation glove, and keeps his right hand on the bulky sandwich roll he is loading with cheese and meat at Piocos Chicken.

Santiago does not speak the language well enough to detail his political views in English, so he repeats himself: “Hillary, number one!”

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Donald Trump’s campaign has spent more on hats than on polling

I don’t think there’s a data point that better captures the weirdness of this presidential election cycle than the following:

According to the Federal Election Commission filings, Donald Trump’s presidential campaign has spent $1.8 million on polling from June 2015 through September of this year (the most recent month for which data are available). The report also lists $3.2 million spent on hats.

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Trump stops holding high-dollar fundraisers that were raising big cash for the GOP

Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has no further high-dollar fundraising events planned for the remainder of the campaign, dealing another serious blow to the GOP’s effort to finance its get-out-the-vote operation before Election Day.

Steven Mnuchin, Trump’s national finance chairman, said in an interview with The Washington Post on Tuesday that Trump Victory, a joint fundraising committee between the party and the campaign, held its last formal fundraiser on Oct. 19.

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Trump Has 2-Point Edge in Bloomberg Politics Poll of Florida

Donald Trump has a slim advantage in Florida as critical independent voters narrowly break his way in the must-win battleground state, a Bloomberg Politics poll shows.

The Republican presidential nominee has 45 percent to Democrat Hillary Clinton’s 43 percent among likely voters when third-party candidates are included, the poll found. In a hypothetical two-way race, Trump has 46 percent to Clinton’s 45 percent.

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