Recent News

Donald Trump has a significant lead in the race to win over likely Iowa caucus-goers, according to the first CNN/ORC poll in the state this cycle.

You’ve already heard a lot of different takes about who won and who lost the first Republican presidential debates last week. We’ve deliberately waited to name names; winning the media spin after a debate is often more important than “winning” the debate itself. But now it’s been several days, and we have some post-debate polls to look at (seven as of this writing, to be exact).¹ And there are a few clear winners and losers.

Who Will Republicans Come Around to in 2016?

This is the quadrennial Republican silly season, when candidates without a prayer of election get their moments in the limelight, sometimes topping the polls before crashing.

The polling and the pundits agree: Carly Fiorina deserves to be on the main debate stage come next month at the Reagan Library.

The polls get most of the attention, but they’re not the most important part of the early stages of a presidential campaign. The better guide to who’s really winning is known as the “invisible primary,” in which candidates compete for support from their fellow politicians, from party leaders and from donors.

Forget the polls. Forget the talking heads on TV. Forget the lies and empty promises being pitched by the candidates. If you want to know who the Republican presidential nominee will be, look to Vegas.

Winners and losers of Republican debate

1) Ohio Gov. John Kasich: He set the Internet buzzing with his common-man, common-sense pitches, weaving in family stories while introducing his economic record in Ohio to a national audience.