Recent News

Donald Trump has said, “I would be the best for women.” But according to a new NBC News|SurveyMoney poll taken after the first presidential debate, a majority of women aren’t convinced.

Twenty-seven percent of likely women voters said the debate made them think worse of Trump. Meanwhile, nearly a third, or 30 percent, said their opinion of Clinton had improved, compared to 22 percent of men. Women were also far likelier to say Clinton won the debate, by a 10-point margin over men.

Like a lot of you, we at FiveThirtyEight are spending a lot of time refreshing our web browsers and Twitter feeds as we await new polls. Until we get more of those, figuring out how the first presidential debate affected the race involves a lot of guesswork. Still, the data that we have so far suggests that Hillary Clinton has gained ground as a result of Monday night’s debate — it’s mostly a question of how much her position has improved.

Here’s a scary stat for Democrats: In 2012, President Obama won re-election by almost 5 million votes, but about 47 million eligible white voters without a college degree — including 24 million men — didn’t bother to vote. In 2016, these nonvoters are part of the demographic that is most strongly in favor of Donald Trump.

If Trump rouses even a fraction of these notoriously disaffected Americans — like this grease-smudged, 61-year-old first-time voter in western Pennsylvania — he could surge to victory. There’s just one catch: If we’re on the cusp of a blue-collar Great Awakening, it’s not yet showing up in the registration data.

Don­ald Trump ap­pears to have a new fa­vor­ite way to at­tack Hil­lary Clin­ton: her cam­paign sched­ule.

In the run-up to the first de­bate of the gen­er­al elec­tion, Trump sug­ges­ted on sev­er­al oc­ca­sions Clin­ton was sleep­ing in­stead of pre­par­ing for this past Monday’s show­down. At the de­bate it­self, Trump ques­tioned wheth­er his op­pon­ent had the “stam­ina” to serve as pres­id­ent.

Clinton camp debates media strategy vs. Trump

Hillary Clinton’s campaign is promising to be more “positive” in the homestretch for the White House to give voters a reason to support the Democrat and not just oppose Republican nominee Donald Trump.

One Clinton surrogate said the campaign understands that they need to continue to “give people a reason to vote for her.”

Ohio, Long a Bellwether, Is Fading on the Electoral Map

After decades as one of America’s most reliable political bellwethers, an inevitable presidential battleground that closely mirrored the mood and makeup of the country, Ohio is suddenly fading in importance this year.

Hillary Clinton has not been to the state since Labor Day, and her aides said Thursday that she would not be back until next week, after a monthlong absence, effectively acknowledging how difficult they think it will be to defeat Donald J. Trump here.

Clinton holds narrow leads in five battleground states

Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton leads Republican Donald Trump by single digits in five critical battleground states, according to post-debate polls for each battleground.

Clinton tops Trump in Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Virginia in Public Policy Polling (PPP) surveys out Thursday.