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Recent News

Rubio surges to second in New Hampshire poll

Republican presidential hopeful Marco Rubio on Thursday vaulted into second place in a daily tracking poll, but still trails front-runner Donald Trump by double-digits in the New Hampshire primary

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Recent News

Cruz wins as Rubio and Trump prepare for battle

Ted Cruz beat the polls and beat Donald Trump Monday in Iowa, garnering the most votes in the history of the Iowa caucuses. Marco Rubio finished a strong third. If history is a guide, those are the only three tickets out of Iowa.

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Campaign Watch

What Do the Caucus Results Mean – and What’s Next?

The Iowa caucuses are over and done, and now the candidates (most of them, at least) are moving on to New Hampshire. Two candidates, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley, ended their campaigns after disappointing results, and it is possible one or two more will pull the plug within the next few days.

Aside from pushing a few candidates out of the race, what will be the impact of the Iowa caucuses on the Democratic and ... Read More >>

Recent News

Ted Cruz Wins Republican Caucuses in Iowa

Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, powered by a surge of support from evangelical Christians, dealt a humbling loss to Donald J. Trump in the Iowa caucuses on Monday, throwing into question the depth of support for Mr. Trump’s unconventional candidacy.

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Recent News

Decision Desk, Iowa: Three-Man Race?

Tonight’s Iowa caucuses will finally start to winnow the ginormous Republican field down to size. More importantly, it will also be the first test of three different narratives. Will Trump’s voters turn out? Can Cruz, who has staked his hopes on riding a united movement conservatism to victory, win in the early state where a united movement is strongest? Can Rubio emerge as the most conservative “establishment” candidate in modern history?
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Recent News

The Iowa Caucus Expectations Game: What Do the Republican Candidates Need?

The Iowa Caucuses award 27 of the 1,237 delegates needed to win the Republican presidential nomination, they are awarded proportionally, and nobody is likely to get much more than a third of the vote, so the numerical importance of winning Iowa is almost nil. What matters is the psychology of the results, how they shape the race going forward, and what they tell us about the candidates’ campaigns. What does each candidate need tonight?
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Campaign Watch

Things to Look for in Iowa Caucus Results

For decades the maxim regarding the presidential nominating process has been that there are three tickets out of Iowa, meaning the top three candidates have done well enough to be considered viable contenders for the later contests. It’s a bit more complicated than that, of course – Arizona Sen. John McCain finished fourth in 2008 after not campaigning in the caucuses but still won the nomination – but it is true that candidates need to at least meet if not ... Read More >>