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October 26, 2016

Trump Has 2-Point Edge in Bloomberg Politics Poll of Florida

Donald Trump has a slim advantage in Florida as critical independent voters narrowly break his way in the must-win battleground state, a Bloomberg Politics poll shows.

The Republican presidential nominee has 45 percent to Democrat Hillary Clinton’s 43 percent among likely voters when third-party candidates are included, the poll found. In a hypothetical two-way race, Trump has 46 percent to Clinton’s 45 percent.

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October 26, 2016

Trump stops holding high-dollar fundraisers that were raising big cash for the GOP

Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has no further high-dollar fundraising events planned for the remainder of the campaign, dealing another serious blow to the GOP’s effort to finance its get-out-the-vote operation before Election Day.

Steven Mnuchin, Trump’s national finance chairman, said in an interview with The Washington Post on Tuesday that Trump Victory, a joint fundraising committee between the party and the campaign, held its last formal fundraiser on Oct. 19.

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October 26, 2016

Donald Trump’s campaign has spent more on hats than on polling

I don’t think there’s a data point that better captures the weirdness of this presidential election cycle than the following:

According to the Federal Election Commission filings, Donald Trump’s presidential campaign has spent $1.8 million on polling from June 2015 through September of this year (the most recent month for which data are available). The report also lists $3.2 million spent on hats.

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October 26, 2016

New Puerto Rican voters could decide crucial Florida battleground

“Hillary, number one!” says Andy Santiago, who moved to Florida from Puerto Rico nine months ago in search of a job. He gives a thumbs-up with his left hand, stuck in a latex food-preparation glove, and keeps his right hand on the bulky sandwich roll he is loading with cheese and meat at Piocos Chicken.

Santiago does not speak the language well enough to detail his political views in English, so he repeats himself: “Hillary, number one!”

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October 26, 2016

Polls May Be Underestimating Evan McMullin’s Chances In Utah

Earlier this month, I wrote a story outlining the extremely narrow but not impossible path that Evan McMullin could take to the White House, and since then, McMullin has become a genuinely hot topic. Nate Silver followed up with a post about how our forecast model is handling Utah. And we’ve talked about how McMullin’s chances of being the first third-party or independent candidate to win a state since 1968 may turn out to be one of the last cliffhanger results in this race.

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October 25, 2016

Clinton leads by 5 heading in to final two weeks

Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by 5 points as the presidential campaign heads into its final two weeks, with the Democratic nominee’s support just shy of the 50% mark, according to a new CNN/ORC poll.

Among likely voters, Clinton tops Trump 49% to 44%, with just 3% backing Libertarian Gary Johnson and 2% behind Green Party nominee Jill Stein.
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October 25, 2016

Hillary Clinton Closes Gap With Male Voters

Hillary Clinton appears to have closed what was once a large gap in support among male voters with rival Donald Trump, according to the latest ABC News poll.

Male respondents reported support for the former secretary of state at 44 percent to Trump’s 41 percent — a major swing for the group, which had backed him throughout the campaign.

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