2016 Campaign Watch

Polls are able to capture what is often called a “snap shot” of a political race, providing a good assessment of where the contest is at a particular moment in time. But they don’t capture everything, as an illuminating discussion by the analysts at FiveThirtyEight.com reveals:

What Could The Polls Be Missing?

Hypothesis #1: The polls are underestimating Clinton because they don’t factor in her superior ground game.

Most reports (and we’ll have an article with some extensive data on this soon) suggest ...

Tonight’s debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump will help to frame the election for the last several weeks of the campaign (but probably not determine it, as Mitt Romney learned to his sorrow after outperforming President Obama in the first debate of 2012). The Washington Post offers several things to look for in this evening’s clash:

5 things to watch at the presidential debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump

For the past month, Trump has had the longtime anti-Clinton investigator ...

According to an insightful analysis at FiveThirtyEight.com, Democrat Hillary Clinton remains positioned to win the White House – barely. From the article:

Clinton’s Leading In Exactly The States She Needs To Win

Here at FiveThirtyEight, our favorite election-related chart is what we officially call the “winding path to 270 electoral votes” and unofficially call the snake. Designed by my colleague Aaron Bycoffe, it lines the states up from most favorable for Hillary Clinton (Hawaii, Maryland) to best for Donald Trump (Wyoming, Alabama) ...