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Eye On Candidates
March 12, 2015

New York Times Upshot Blog: “Chaos” If Clinton Doesn’t Run

Sean Parnell

The New York Times hosts a terrific blog focused on politics, policy, and economics called The Upshot. Today it has a thought-provoking piece on what the 2016 nomination battle for Democrats might look like without Hillary Clinton. The short version: chaos.

Imagining 2016 Without Hillary Clinton

We’re on record here at The Upshot as believing that Hillary Clinton is in an extremely strong position to win the Democratic nomination. And as Brendan Nyhan has explained, the furor over her private email account is likely to affect far fewer voters than may now appear to be the case.

But what if the unlikely happens, and she is forced to abandon her planned presidential campaign because of a development we can’t now anticipate? In that case, what would the Democratic field for the 2016 nomination look like?

The short answer is: Chaos.

Mrs. Clinton’s dominance has kept other top Democrats from taking the kind of steps that serious presidential candidates have typically taken by now. Additionally, the Democrats’ poor performance in statewide races during the Obama years has left the party with a relatively shallow bench. All of this helps explain the absence of Democratic infighting about the email account…

It’s a terrific piece by David Leonhardt (who is editor of The Upshot), and if there’s one thing you read today about the 2016 nomination fight it should be this piece.