Clinton’s General Election Support Slipping in Key States
The last two months have shown former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton losing support in the Democratic nomination contest to Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, although she has continued to hold a commanding lead. Recent polling suggests her support in key battleground states may be slipping against Republicans as well. CNN reports on how she fares against three leading GOP candidates: former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker:
Poll: Clinton trails top Republicans in battleground states
Hillary Clinton trails three top Republican presidential candidates in head-to-head matchups in Colorado, Iowa and Virginia, a new survey shows.
The latest Quinnipiac University swing state polling released Wednesday shows the Democratic frontrunner trailing former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker in each of those states….
In Colorado, only 34% of voters said they see Clinton as honest and trustworthy while 62% said they don't. In Iowa, the numbers were 33% to 59% -- a drop from 45% to 47% in April. And in Virginia, Clinton did best, at 39% saying they trust her to 55% saying they don't.
The specific numbers for each of the three states show falling support for Clinton compared to the Quinnipiac poll in April, which in turn showed falling support for her from the same poll done in February. Here are the July numbers:
In Colorado, Clinton trails Rubio 38%-46%, Bush 36%-41% and Walker 38%-47%. In Iowa, she trails Rubio 36%-44%, Bush 36%-42% and Walker 37%-45%. And in Virginia, Clinton has the narrowest margins between her and her Republican opponents, where she lags behind Rubio 41%-43%, Bush 39%-42% and Walker 40%-43%.
Now compare those to the April numbers reported directly by Quinnipiac:
Colorado… U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida gets 41 percent to Clinton's 40 percent… Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker gets 42 percent to her 41 percent… She gets 41 percent to Bush's 38 percent…
Iowa… She gets 41 percent to 40 percent for Bush… Clinton edges Walker 44 - 40 percent… She gets 43 percent to 40 percent against… Rubio…
Virginia… Clinton leads Bush 47 - 40 percent in Virginia, compared to a 42 - 42 percent tie February 18… Clinton tops Walker 47 - 40 percent… She beats Rubio 48 - 40 percent…
The April poll also showed Hillary tied with or trailing other GOP candidates as well in some of these states who apparently weren’t included in the July poll. Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul led her narrowly in both Colorado and Iowa in April, while former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee tied her in both of those states.
The February poll showed Clinton leading against the three Republicans currently seen as frontrunner, although Paul seemed to be making a go of it in that early poll as well:
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton runs best overall against leading Republican White House contenders in three critical swing states, Colorado, Iowa and Virginia, but U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky is in a virtual tie with her in Colorado and Virginia, according to a Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll released today. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush ties her in Virginia, the largest of the three, and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker is in a virtual tie in Colorado.
Politico thinks it has an explanation for why Clinton is slipping:
Voters in all three states gave Clinton low marks for honesty and trustworthiness, with 62 percent of Colorado voters saying she is not honest or trustworthy, compared to only 34 percent who think she is. In Iowa (59 percent to 33 percent) and Virginia (55 percent to 39 percent), Clinton earned similarly low numbers.
That may be the issue, but it seems worth noting that both Vice President Joe Biden posts nearly identical numbers against the Republican field, and Sanders does as well aside from in Virginia where he runs three to four points behind Clinton’s performance.
It’s a long way to Election Day, and head-to-head matchups are of limited value at this point while the nomination battle is just getting started. But it does appear that over the past several months Clinton has seen her general election support falter, and this could give further momentum to her Democratic challengers who can now point to this poll and suggest that she may not be the strongest candidate to take into the fall of 2016.